On January 18th, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to the US Congress saying that as the US federal government is about to hit the debt ceiling, the Treasury Department will take extraordinary measures from January 21st to avoid debt default. In her letter, Yellen called on Congress to take action as soon as possible to raise or suspend the debt ceiling to protect the credibility and economic stability of the United States. She pointed out that the Treasury Department will start a...
Janet Yellen, the outgoing US Treasury secretary, has warned that the next administration's plan to extend the 2017 Republican tax cuts could disrupt the financial marekt and worsen an already challenging US fiscal outlook. "The projected fiscal path under current budget policy is simply not sustainable, and failure to act or take action that exacerbates the projected deficit could have dire consequences," Yellen said on Wednesday.
BlackRock (BLK. N) CEO Fink: Expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 5.5%.
JPMorgan's Treasury client survey showed that bears rose 6 percentage points in the week to January 6, bulls rose 8 percentage points and neutral fell 14 percentage points. The survey of all clients showed that bulls rose to their highest level since December 4, 2023, while neutral fell to its lowest level since December 4, 2023.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday that the U.S. financial system continues to face commercial real estate risks and vulnerabilities posed by digital assets in 2024, despite cooling inflation and low unemployment boosting the overall economy. She hinted that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) member regulator remains focused on monitoring credit risk for commercial real estate and urged officials to keep an eye on Wall Street's ability to respond.
Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to 4.5% by the end of 2025, while the 2-year Treasury yield will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, which will lower short-term interest rates, but will also increase the demand for long-term Treasury bonds by stimulating the economy and increasing the fiscal deficit, which will lead to higher long-term yields. In addition, the possibility that Trump's tariff...
Morgan Stanley expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.55% next year, down from 3.75% previously, as they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than the market expects. The Morgan Stanley team also had an interesting take on the Department of Government Efficiency and its leaders, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, saying: "Although...
Morgan Stanley expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.75% by mid-2025 and just over 3.50% by the end of next year, with a 75 basis point cut expected in the first half of 2025.
The short-term rise in the yield of 2-year US Treasury bonds once expanded to 6BP, at 4.36%, the US dollar index DXY rose again to below the 107 mark, and risk assets including US stocks and bitcoin fell across the board.
Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said that if President-elect Trump follows through on his promises, the United States will once again experience a severe inflation crisis. Summers pointed out that Trump's promised domestic tax cuts, higher tariffs and deportation of illegal immigrants would have a severe impact on the US economy. "If he sticks to the plan he promised during the campaign, the country will suffer a bigger inflationary crisis than it did in 2021."
Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell said he was concerned about the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which are far from their previous levels. It is too early to determine the specific direction of the country's yields. He also said that bond interest rates reflect economic growth expectations; volatility in the bond market does not appear to be mainly influenced by rising expected inflation. Powell said that since the September meeting, the main economic activity data has been stronger; some...
Inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than expected in the coming years, according to Mr. Summers, the former Treasury secretary. "On the monetary policy front, the Fed faces the risk of higher inflation if it is to actually cut rates as much as it expects," he said. Fed policymakers' latest dot plot forecast for the median federal funds rate at the end of next year is 3.4 per cent, or 150 basis points on top of Wednesday's 50 basis point cut. Mr. Summers said that ...
Deutsche Bank strategists recommend shorting 10-year Treasuries, arguing that 10-year yields could rise by about 30 basis points from current levels as the U.S. job market remains resilient.
The two-year Treasury yield fell more than 8 basis points to below 3.9% on a refresh day following the release of Federal Reserve meeting notes.
Treasuries were higher as a weaker-than-expected U.S. producer price index (PPI) report supported the Federal Reserve to cut borrowing costs more aggressively this year. Tuesday's rise pushed the yield curve down by at least four basis points, with the two-year yield down about five basis points to just under 4 percent and the 10-year yield falling to around 3.9 percent. Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said after the weak PPI report, "You can breathe ...